Vladimir Putin sits between actor Steven Seagal, left, and Russian mixed martial artist听Fedor Emelianenko, right, at a martial arts competition in Russia in 2012. (Credit: via )
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An international team of researchers has released an exhaustive look at support for Russia鈥檚 autocratic President Vladimir Putin across several neighboring countries.听
The study, 听was a massive effort.听From 2019 to 2020, researchers led by John O鈥橪oughlin at 抖阴旅行射 Boulder contracted with local polling companies to survey more than 8,400 people face-to-face in six nations: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Ukraine.听
The team鈥檚 findings give a deep look at the type of people who support Putin, a former KGB spy who once held a photoshoot of himself riding a horse shirtless. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the results reveal that Putin is more popular among men than women, and less popular among younger and more educated people.听
鈥淥ur research has shown that Putin鈥檚 machismo and his authoritarian personality appeal to people who have more close-minded personalities, hold traditional values and don鈥檛 trust science,鈥� said John O鈥橪oughlin, professor in the and Department of Geography.
In the former Soviet Union, Putin remains a complicated presence.
Vladimir Putin meets in 2021 with Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus who is not legally recoognized by the United States. (Credit: via )
Putin, whose machismo reputation has helped him to build strong levels of support among men, has had a penchant for shirtless听photoshoots.听(Credit: via )
In Georgia, for example, the survey found that Putin was wildly unpopular, with more than 70% of respondents indicating that they had 鈥渘o trust at all鈥� in the leader. He boasted much more favorable ratings in Belarus and Kazakhstan, which have traditionally held close ties with Russia.听
O鈥橪oughlin noted that he and his colleagues conducted the surveys before Russia launched its long and bloody invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The researchers are planning to return to the same respondents in early 2024 to see how the war may have reshaped, or not, their attitudes toward Putin.
They separately conducted phone interviews with hundreds of people living in parts of Ukraine under Kyiv听control in October 2022, and responses show that the . In the country, support for joining NATO, a military alliance including the U.S. and dozens of European nations, soared from 44% to 77% since 2019.
鈥淚t was dramatic,鈥� O鈥橪oughlin said. 鈥淲e asked the same people exactly the same questions, and the shift in attitudes was incredible.鈥�
Whether the same shifts will happen in other former Soviet Union nations is less clear. 听
鈥淲e have what's called a 鈥榥atural experiment,鈥欌�� O鈥橪oughlin said. 鈥淲e weren鈥檛 expecting the war in Ukraine, but we can see the effects of the full-scale invasion on peoples鈥� attitudes about Putin and Russia and toward the West and NATO.鈥�
Putin鈥檚 stamp of approval
Asking people about Putin, however, can be a loaded topic, he added.听
People don鈥檛 always tell the truth on surveys. In some cases, they may be worried about the consequences. In others, survey respondents merely give researchers the answers they think they want to hear.听
To get around those limitations, O鈥橪oughlin and his colleagues undertook what researchers call an 鈥渆ndorsement experiment.鈥�
During the roughly 45-minute surveys, the team asked participants a seemingly innocuous question鈥攚hether they supported drilling for oil in the Arctic. For half of the respondents, however, the researchers tacked on an extra caveat: 鈥淧resident Putin of Russia strongly favors oil drilling.鈥�
鈥淭he difference between the more neutral question and the question mentioning Putin鈥檚 endorsement gives you an idea of his real support,鈥� O鈥橪oughlin said.
It made a difference, too. In Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, the fake Putin endorsement made people less likely to support drilling in the Arctic. The opposite was true in Armenia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Appeal of the 鈥榮trong man鈥�
The findings could provide researchers with clues about why some people find autocratic leaders in the mold of Putin so appealing.听
Researchers, for example, asked the survey respondents if they agreed with the statement: 鈥淗usbands should make the important decisions in a marriage.鈥�
People who said yes were significantly more likely to support Putin than those who disagreed. The same was true for people who agreed with the statement: 鈥淚 see myself as conventional and uncreative.鈥�
鈥淥ur biggest surprise was that these results were consistent across the different countries in our study,鈥� O鈥橪oughlin said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the same people in every place who like or dislike Putin.鈥�
O鈥橪oughlin noted that, in Russia, Putin has tapped into nostalgia for the former Soviet Union鈥攁n era that many people in the region, and especially older generations, still view as a time of relative peace and stability.
鈥淚n the U.S., that鈥檚 easy to dismiss, but many people want security, peace and quiet,鈥� O鈥橪oughlin said. 鈥淭hey believe that if you don鈥檛 have a strong, authoritarian leader, the whole society is going to collapse.鈥�
Coauthors of the new study include Andrew Linke, a former doctoral student at 抖阴旅行射 Boulder now at the University of Utah, Gerald Toal at Virginia Tech and Kristin Bakke at University College London.听
The research was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation.
